Risk Management Report: Iraq

POLITICS: Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932, and became a republic in 1958. There was a long war with Iran in the 1980s, the Gulf war and ensuing sanctions in the 1990s, and the US-led occupation which removed the Baathists and Saddam Hussein in the 2000s. Twelve years after the US-led war, the country has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk grade has moved from D to E, reflecting the worsening violence in 2014, as Sunni extremists from the Islamic State group, formerly the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), dramatically extended their territorial control. The United Nations mission in Iraq says that at least 12,282 civilians were killed and 23,126 injured in 2014. ISIL was able to harness the huge frustrations of Iraq’s Sunnis, who felt marginalised during the years of Nouri Al-Maliki’s autocratic premiership; the jihadists’ capture of Mosul in June brought the country to the brink of all-out sectarian conflict, and has dragged the US and allies back to Iraq as they wage an air campaign against the jihadists.