Risk Management Report: Oman

Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Qaboos, who deposed his father in a coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite, rather than his relatively small family. He was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; what will happen when he dies is an increasingly pressing concern, as he has been seriously ill since mid- 2014. The downward trend arrow on Oman’s political risk grade reflects the potential for instability on his death, not just because of uncertainty over who will succeed, but also because of the likelihood that a change in leadership could open the door to greater public pressure for political reform, especially at a time of economic constraints. Power remains strongly centralised, but there has been some modernisation. The first elections, for the Majlis Al-Shura (consultative council), were held in 1991; elections for municipal councils took place in late 2012. Oman has one of the world’s youngest populations, with roughly 45% under 20 years old, putting pressure on the government as social provider and swelling the ranks of potential malcontents. Protests in 2011 prompted Qaboos to reshuffle the government and raise spending, but there has been little tolerance of dissent. In foreign policy, Muscat is known for its pragmatism, and has often acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington.