Risk Management Report: Oman

Politics: Oman has been governed since 1970 by Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, the 14th ruler of the Al-Busaidi dynasty, founded in 1750. Qaboos, who deposed his father in a palace coup, relies on a variety of allies typically drawn from the merchant elite, rather than his relatively small family. He was briefly married but has no children or heir apparent; finalising the succession (likely to go to one of three cousins) is an increasingly pressing concern, as Qaboos has been seriously ill since mid-2014. GSN’s downward trend arrow reflects the potential for instability, due to uncertainty over who will succeed and the potential for greater public pressure for political reform – from a population of whom roughly 45% are under 20 years old.