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Risk Management Report: Iran

Iran was declared an Islamic Republic in 1979, following the overthrow of the shah. Supreme leader (rahbar) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits at the top of the political system, his power (in theory) checked by an elected president and parliament; the conflict between theocracy and democracy dictates much of the internal dynamic. The election of President Hassan Rouhani in June 2013 – who is more moderate than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – has proved a transitional moment in the republic’s external relations. The upward trend arrow on Iran’s political risk grade reflects the probable impact of the July 2015 nuclear deal, with a gradual reversal of international sanctions expected to start being felt in 2016.

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