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Risk Management Report - Iraq

Politics: Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932, and became a republic in 1958. The 1980s saw the long war with Iran, the 1990s the Gulf war and ensuing sanctions, and the 2000s the US-led occupation which removed the Baathists and Saddam Hussein. Twelve years after the US-led war, Iraq has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk grade was moved from D to E, reflecting the worsening violence, as Sunni extremists from Islamic State (IS, or Daesh) dramatically extended their territorial control, harnessing the huge frustrations of Iraq’s Sunnis, who felt marginalised during the years of Nouri Al-Maliki’s autocratic premiership; the ensuing conflict has dragged the US and allies back to Iraq in a campaign against the jihadists that could strengthen Abadi’s admittedly weak position (hence the political risk ‘up’ arrow). According to the United Nations mission in Iraq, at least 7,515 civilians were killed in 2015, and 14,855 injured.

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