Downstream update: South Africa considers
Plans for refinery expansion are stalled as the government considers various options, including increasing imports,building the 300,000 b/d Mthombo refinery or expanding Shell and BP’s 180,000 b/d Sapref plant. Fuel demand is forecast to grow to more than 400,000 b/d by 2020, and PetroSA argues that if there is no refining investment, South Africa will have to import more than 200,000 b/d by 2020. However, a mid-2012 co-operation agreement with Sinopec increased Mthombo’s chances of going ahead. At the same time, more offshore gas supplies are being secured to extend the life of PetroSA’s Mossel Bay GTL refinery, and Sasol is increasing gas imports from Mozambique for its Secunda complex.