An election victory next May seems to be Presidential Hassan Rouhani’s to lose, but the big winners on the Iranian business scene continue to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC or Pasdaran) and other conservative factions – a harsh reality for oil majors considering investments and others hoping for a soft landing in Iran after the nuclear deal. Their powerful position signals that hardliners are in no way in retreat, even if many Iranians would like to see genuine change.
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