Low-cost oil could persist as market share wins over price stability

In Africa, as elsewhere in the world, the great oil price divide pits producers confronted with looming budget deficits and pressures on reserves, like Algeria, Angola and Nigeria, against importers including Ethiopia, Morocco and South Africa, whose current account balances and subsidy regimes have been eased by the precipitous fall in crude prices. Brent crude had fallen to a six-year low of $47.6/bbl as of 12 January, from a June 2014 peak of $115/bbl. Goldman Sachs, which only last year was forecasting a long-term trend of $200/bbl crude, estimates average $42 Brent in the next quarter.