Risk Management Report: Iraq

Iraq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932, and became a republic in 1958. The 1980s saw the long war with Iran, the 1990s the Gulf war and ensuing sanctions, and the 2000s the US-led occupation which removed the Baathists and Saddam Hussein. Twelve years after the US-led war, the country has yet to emerge from conflict. GSN’s political risk grade recently moved from D to E, reflecting the worsening violence in 2014, as Sunni extremists from the Islamic State (IS) group, dramatically extended their territorial control. The United Nations mission in Iraq said that at least 12,282 civilians were killed in 2014, and 23,126 injured, and has recorded more than 2,600 deaths in the first four months of 2015. IS was able to harness the huge frustrations of Iraq’s Sunnis, who felt marginalised during the years of Nouri Al-Maliki’s autocratic premiership; the ensuing conflict has dragged the US and allies back to Iraq as they wage an air campaign against the jihadists.